The Canadian Polity

Tom Flanagan is not just the Prince of Darkness of the Reform/Alliance/Conservative braintrust, he is also a respected political scientist. And he has interesting things to say today in the Globe including:

My long-term prognosis: Whether the Conservatives win a minority government (a majority now seems out of the question) or the Liberals stage a comeback to win their own minority, we are in for years of fragmentation. Usually, a period of splintering would be followed by consolidation, as happened with the Canadian Alliance-Progressive Conservative merger, but our system of finance tends to turn advocacy groups into parties and keeps them alive even after they have outlived their usefulness.

Also in the Globe today is a quick overview of the role of provincial premiers in this federal election:

Then there is Danny Williams of Newfoundland and Labrador - a Conservative who legally registered his "Anyone But Conservative" campaign with Elections Canada, calls the Conservative Prime Minister "intolerant" and predicts a "dark age" if the Conservatives get a majority.

The "fighting for you" game worked well for Joey Smallwood, Frank Moores and Clyde Wells, and it's been working for Mr. Williams.

The national view? Williams is same-old-same-old.