Showing posts with label tim murphy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tim murphy. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Pre-Development Projects: Orphan Basin

This is the last of 4 stories on energy projects to come recently published in the Natural Resources Magazine supplement to Atlantic Business Magazine. Latest updates on this story are at the end.

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While a very public spat goes on between big oil and the government of Newfoundland and Labrador over the future of the Hebron ben-Nevis and Hibernia South developments, Chevron and ExxonMobil, along with Imperial Oil Ltd. and Shell Canada Ltd., continue to invest in the region.

Last summer, they started drilling a $140-million well - the most expensive in Canadian history - in another offshore region called the Orphan Basin. The well is close to complete and results are as yet unknown. Two more wells are expected to be drilled this year.

The Orphan Basin is located approximately 325 km from Newfoundland landmark and roughly 150 km north of the Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose oil fields on the Grand Banks.

This region made big news in late 2003 when it became clear that the major oil companies were very keenly interested in further exploration off Newfoundland's east coast. ExxonMobil, along with its Canadian subsidiary Imperial Oil, and Chevron committed to spending more than $672 million to explore eight parcels of land all located in the Orphan Basin.

The total amount bid was a record for the province's offshore at more than three times the previous high. The companies have to spend the amount of money they've bid on exploration during the first five years of their nine-year leases.

Prior to 2003, the Orphan Basin was subject to minimal exploration activity. Between 1974 and 1985, only seven wells were drilled in the region. That effort resulted in an extremely low well density so the CNLOPB’s Call for Bids provided an excellent opportunity to further evaluate the potential of this area.

The significance of the Orphan Basin is both long-term and short-term.

In the long-term, more exploration represents the potential of more projects in the future in an area which may hold as much oil as the Grand Banks where the other three projects are located. It’s an industry axiom that while exploration does not necessarily yield oil, you will never find new developments unless you invest in exploring for them.

In the years following the initial Hibernia discovery, companies took advantage of federal incentives to explore offshore. From the Hibernia discovery in 1979 to 1991, $2.8 billion was spent in exploration. However, since then only $643 million went into exploration.

Since 1992, a total of only 18 exploration wells have been drilled. That compares to the intense exploration activity of the early 70's: 1972 (11 wells), 1973(17 wells) and 1974 (9 wells).

To carry out the exploration, the consortium has contracted the massive rig Eirik Raude, which was drilling in the Barents Sea. Another drilling rig, the jack-up Rowan Gorilla VI, returned last summer to drill too.

The entire local industry has been anxiously awaiting the results of these test drills because there have been no significant new finds of oil off Newfoundland's coast in 20 years.

So far, Chevron indicates they are very pleased with 3-D seismic programs conducted over the last two summers. Analysis of the two seasons of seismic data will continue into 2006 to identify geological structures that may contain hydrocarbon deposits, and determine possible locations for future exploration wells.

Despite its attractiveness to the world’s largest oil and gas exploration companies, the Orphan Basin does present some unique challenges of which the most significant challenges are logistical. Unlike existing developments in the Jeanne D’arc basin, which are approximately 300 km from shore, the Orphan Basin is 300 – 500 km from shore. Compared to the Grand Banks is a harsher environment. Compared to the Grand Banks where the water depth runs about 80m, at the Orphan Basin the water depth ranges to 2500m and is much colder; about 2-3 degrees above zero at that depth.

Additional challenges include the range of helicopters used to transfer workers to the rig, and the additional time required for supply boats. However, these are all challenges that can be overcome by an increasingly experienced supply and service community well-schooled in the challenges associated with the current projects.

In the short-term, this exploration program represents activity for the local supply and service sector. As the most expensive well ever drilled on the east Coast of Canada, every day of drilling represents an expenditure of a rumoured C$500,000 per day just for the rig. In addition, there are the local expenditures for three supply vessels, helicopters, catering, logging, mud, cement, testing etc.

The Orphan Basin shows how if your territory contains hydrocarbons, oil companies will beat a path to your door. The fact that they have already made considerable regional investments in production-related facilities and their previous experience in harsh environment exploration and production provides the incentive to keep looking for more oil.

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On March 28th, the Financial Post published a story on the upcoming departure of the Eirik Raude drilling rig noting that:
"The move is yet another setback for Danny Williams, Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, who wants to increase provincial revenue from oil development and take equity stakes in projects."
The Telegram also noted the departure here.

Saturday, April 07, 2007

Williams blows smoke: No Hebron talks

I've mentioned before, most recently here, that Premier Williams likes to make casual statements as reported here:
Williams said Tuesday officials with his government and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro are in discussions with partners in the project "all the time."
He wouldn't go into details of those discussions.
Premier Williams does not specifically claim that the discussions with the partners have anything to do with Hebron although he does try to leave that impression. In fact, both government and the Hebron partners (who are also the Hibernia and Terra Nova partners: ExxonMobile, PetroCan, Chevron et al) talk all the time over operational issues, Hibernia South and other non-Hebron projects without ever talking about Hebron itself.

In fact there have been no discussions at all since the Hebron talks collapsed a year ago. The simple evidence of that is, while premier Williams tosses off vague and bland assurances that everything is under control, industry is very quick to confirm to confirm, yet again, that there are no talks ongoing at all and there haven't been any in a year.

In the Telegram today, Tim Murphy, Chevron's (almost) last man left in the province, says so explicitly:
"Nothing has changed on Hebron. There are no discussions or negotiations ongoing and none are planned. At this stage we don't know what it will take or how long it's going to take to get back to that. From our perspective, as operator, no discussions or negotiations are ongoing. We're not talking to the province about Hebron." [emphasis added]
So while Premier Williams prefers to pretend that the matter is under control, this latest story shows beyond any reasonable doubt that the government's oil development file is not under control at all.

It is way out of control; there have been no talks between government and industry on a potential $10-12 billion government-revenue project in a year.

You can't help but ask a few questions about this.

The first is, what is government waiting for? What "winning conditions" are required before opening talks that will win the province, government and people, a steady source of revenue and jobs for at least 15 years in all? It's not like the federal government will put through the kind of expropriative legislation the Premier wants because they won't. And if the goal is to await far higher oil prices, that's a very risky and irresponsible game at best and won't make a difference since any deal would take that into account.

Second, how is it possible to ever reach a resolution to this matter unless and until government engages in talks. One this is for sure: it is impossible to negotiate unless there are talks and every day there are no talks is another day farther in the future that this project will come to pass.

Third, since there are no talks, why does the Premier want to provide the illusion that there are some kind of back-channel communications. (If there are then they are so secret that industry is not privy to therm.) It seems so uncharacteristic that Premier Williams is simply not announcing to the world that there are no talks and there will be no talks, unless and until some kind of preconditions are met.

Instead we have a sort of chagrined dissembling; none of the bombastic pride the Premier usually derives from conflict. Let's hope that's not because this conflict has already been fought and lost.

Finally we have to wonder: if industry says they are not talking to government and government is saying they are talking to industry, who is Premier Williams actually talking to?