Monday, April 09, 2007

Williams has no effect on fed polling numbers

Another day, another national poll. Expect quite alot of these over the next while. The latest comes from SES Canada Research commissioned by Sun Media. It shows that there will be no election this spring for the simple reason that no party is close enough to a mjority government to risk precipitating it.

Nationally, the Conservatives registered the support of 36% of decided voters, still short of forming a majority government. They are followed by the Liberals at 33%, the NDP at 16%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 6%.

As the Toronto Sun points out:
In the Maritimes, all the Harper-bashing by Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams over the budget has not altered Conservative support from two months ago. In fact, it is the Liberals that have bled about five points to Jack Layton's NDP and Greens, although the Grits still lead the Tories 40% to 28%.
It's too early to tell whether their interpretation is accurate but, as of right now, it seems that Williams' battle with the feds has had limited impact even at the local/regional level.

The cost/benefit of Williams anti-federal government campaign is clear - he has to have impact on the election results with the hope of mitigating the damage he's done to federal-provincial relations. However, the longer in the future the election is held, the less impact Williams will have on the outcome of even local races.

In other words, the opportunity for influence is fleeting while the impact of the damage is lasting.

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